What is this Case All About?

Every new field we decide to consider "relevant" to our efforts stretches us just so much thinner -- forces us into areas of which we are irredeemably ignorant. We hope to avoid producing either another dilettante's "theory of living systems," or a narrow treatment of specific ecological phenomena. In order to do this, by definition, we must find a way of capitalizing on our areas of special understanding and expertise (i.e., ecology), while creatively incorporating what we can in some sense "securely" gain from the other fields

Notes on Resilience Measures

The author presents some points taken from his notes on a Resilience Measures Presentation by C.S. Holling (IIASA, 11 July 1975) and suggests that they should probably be dealt with explicitly before a final document is prepared

Looking at Ourselves: Thoughts on Process and Product in Applied Systems Analysis

This paper raises some issues concerning the practice and utilization of applied systems analysis (ASA). Our present concept of good ASA necessarily implies two assumptions: (1) It is socially desirable to make decisions in the most rational manner possible, and (2) The details of the ASA process, do not significantly effect the nature of the ASA product. In the body of this paper I argue that these assumptions are at very least open to question, and in all likelihood quite unjustifiable. Present practice relies completely on the validity on these assumptions and criticism of the latter necessarily implies some fairly fundamental misgivings as to the appropriate conduct and utilization of ASA. I do not seek to denigrate the real strengths and advantages of good ASA, and do not have in mind any specific alternatives to the viewpoint expressed by Raiffa above. But ASA and even IIASA are finally beginning to come of age, and both could surely benefit from a bit of serious, if unaccustomed, introspection at this point in their histories

Intertemporal Indicator Evaluation: A Preliminary Note on Problems for Evaluating Time Stream Data for Environmental Policy Analysis

Assumptions regarding the aggregation of time stream data (e.g. "discounting") are crucial in the evaluation of regional development proposals and the assessment of environmental impacts. Nonetheless, present practice reflects a great deal of confusion, ambiguity, caprice, and downright error in the calculation and implementation of such assumptions. We present in this paper the outlines of an approach to inter-temporal indicator evaluation for use in the analysis of regional development alternatives. Our ultimate objective is pragmatic: We wish to develop a practical framework for the reduction and comparison of time stream data for evaluation of public programs and policies. As a foundation for this approach, however, it has been necessary critically to review the existing controversy on intertemporal aggregation in a public policy context, and to clarify the practical implications of the, points at issue. Three interrelated themes pervade this review and provide a conceptual focus for the work

Methodological Problems in the Modeling and Analysis of Ecological Systems

I would like to give you an overview of basic ecological modeling and analysis problems by discussing three things. First, I will try to explain the general attitude of systems-oriented ecologists towards their subject matter. This is a different perspective from that of many here, and we will almost certainly fail to understand each other if you imagine us to be, say, economists with an interest in animals. Second, I will review those structural characteristics of ecological systems which have made their analysis particularly difficult. We like to think that it is at least in part these difficulties which have kept us rather behind the rest of you in a number of methods-related areas. Finally, I'll give a brief picture of the kinds of dynamic and stability behavior which we encounter in real and model ecological systems, using as examples cases presently under investigation at IIASA and' available for study at this workshop

Food, Health, and Population: Policy Analysis and Development Priorities in Low-Income Countries

This paper presents a policy analysis of rural development strategies in low-income countries. Governments, development agencies, and scholars are now giving increased attention to structuring and supplementing growth strategies to reduce the most serious deprivations of poverty. The objectives of such strategies are inevitably multiple and conflicting, with any given allocation of development resources incurring a high opportunity cost in terms of activities foregone. Furthermore, the inherent complexities of the issues involved have led to great uncertainty and disagreement regarding the choice of development strategies that are likely to be most effective. Too often, this disagreement has prohibited emergence of even the minimal consensus required for effective action. No research, however good, will eliminate the uncertainties of development. No models, however comprehensive, will reveal "optimal" strategies for development in the real world. We argue that a systematic analysis of the major components and interactions of a rural development strategy can nonetheless facilitate the ongoing process of development policy design, implementation, and improvement. The major focus of our analysis is policy-feasibility, not optimality. We seek to define the constraints that determine the rural development objectives that are in fact obtainable with existing resources and organizational skills. We particularly emphasize the dominant constraints imposed by the structural and demographic characteristics of the low-income countries, showing that the concentration of population and poverty in rural areas will continue to be a distinguishing feature of these countries into the next century. Equally important are the interactions of malnutrition, infection, and unregulated fertility which continue to inflict high mortality and morbidity rates on infants and small children, despite the overall improvements in mortality rates and longevity of recent decades. We also analyze the relationships among various socioeconomic factors, fertility rates, and population growth, and explore their implications for the design of feasible development policies. The lack of consensus required for effective action is especially evident in the case of nutrition-related aspects of development programs. We therefore devote special attention to the interrelationships among food intake, nutrition, and health. In our view, the essential problem is to strike a suitable balance between production-oriented and consumption-oriented (i.e., redistribution and service) activities in development strategies. Toward this end, we analyze the complementary as well as the competitive relationships between such activities. Based on this analysis, we propose a two-pronged approach emphasizing a broad-based strategy for agricultural development, and an integrated approach to nutrition, health, and family planning services which focuses on inexpensive preventive and promotive activities. We stress the need to focus the debate on these issues through a typology that recognizes the constraints and characteristics of the low-income countries. Finally, we argue that any development strategy is necessarily an experiment. It is essential that we learn how to learn from such experiences and from this how to contribute more effectively to a continuing process of adaptive policy design, implementation, and re-design

Hypotheticality, Resilience and Option Foreclosure: Summary Notes of a IIASA Workshop

An informal workshop on the themes of hypotheticality, resilience, and option foreclosure was held in Laxenburg on 7 July 1975. This Working Paper is meant to serve as an informal record of the workshop. It includes the following material: -- PART I: Invitation and Outline for the Workshop -- PART II: Rapporteur's Notes - H. Swain; Rapporteur's Notes - Wm. Clark -- PART III: Notes on Certainty, Uncertainty, and the Unknown (proposal of definitions for the workshop) -- PART IV: A bibliography of relevant documents

An Interview with W.C. Jefferson (part one)

So what it is, is that we\u27re not all born equal, but what we all should have is a chance to be the best we can be. -- Jeff Jefferson ------------------------------------ The first part of Jefferson’s oral history took place via Zoom on September 26, 2023. Jefferson started by discussing his undergraduate education at Central State in Ohio, where he participated in ROTC. Afterwards, he joined the army and completed two tours in Vietnam during the Vietnam War. He then discussed starting law school and how he balanced work and family during his 1L year. Jefferson described a meeting with then-Dean James Whyte, and the effort to recruit more Black students that resulted from it. The last bit of the interview touched on law school facilities, class and faculty, and the namesake of the Black Law Students Association (BLSA).https://scholarship.law.wm.edu/oralhist_all/1006/thumbnail.jp

The Influence of Pests on Forest Age Structure Dynamics: The Simplest Mathematical Models

This paper is devoted to the investigation of the simplest mathematical models of non-even-age forests affected by insect pests. Two extremely simple situations are considered: 1) the pest feeds only on young trees; 2) the pest feeds only on old trees. It is shown that an invasion of a small number of pests into a steady-state forest ecosystem could result in intensive oscillations of its age structure. Possible implications of environmental changes on forest ecosystems are also considered

Towards a Structural View of Resilience

The result of resilience is persistence: the maintenance of certain characteristic behavioral properties in the face of stress, strain and surprise. But the origins of this resilient behavior lie in the structure of the systems which concern us. Our need as policy analysts may only be one of comparative measures: Which system is more resilient? But as active designers -- as engineers, managers, or responsible policy advisors -- we need to be able to say what mechanisms or relationships make a system resilient, and what actions we can take to make it more or less so. This need for a causal view of resilience led us to a search for persistence-promoting (or "resilient") mechanisms and relationships in a variety of natural and man-made systems